Updated on Saturday 09 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 78577 (+1669) 1320854 (+28710) 223162 (+6299) 1019115 (+20742)
United Kingdom 31241 (+626) 211364 (+4649) 0 (+0) 180123 (+4023)
Italy 30201 (+243) 217185 (+1327) 99023 (+2747) 87961 (-1663)
Spain 26299 (+229) 260117 (+3262) 168408 (+4489) 65410 (-1456)
France 26230 (+243) 176079 (+1288) 55782 (+755) 94067 (+290)
Brazil 9992 (+846) 145892 (+10786) 55350 (+0) 80550 (+9940)
Belgium 8521 (+106) 52011 (+591) 13201 (+221) 30289 (+264)
Germany 7510 (+118) 170588 (+1158) 141700 (+1800) 21378 (-760)
Iran 6541 (+55) 104691 (+1556) 83837 (+1093) 14313 (+408)
Netherlands 5359 (+71) 42093 (+319) 0 (+0) 36734 (+248)
China 4633 (+0) 82886 (+1) 77993 (+36) 260 (-35)
Canada 4567 (+159) 66326 (+1404) 30406 (+1434) 31353 (-189)
Turkey 3689 (+48) 135569 (+1848) 86396 (+3412) 45484 (-1612)
Sweden 3175 (+135) 25265 (+642) 4971 (+0) 17119 (+507)
Mexico 2961 (+257) 29616 (+1982) 17781 (+0) 8874 (+1725)
India 1985 (+96) 59693 (+3342) 17887 (+1111) 39821 (+2135)
Switzerland 1823 (+13) 30207 (+81) 26100 (+200) 2284 (-132)
Russia 1723 (+98) 187859 (+10699) 26608 (+2805) 159528 (+7796)
Peru 1714 (+87) 61847 (+3321) 19012 (+624) 41121 (+2610)
Ecuador 1704 (+50) 30298 (+0) 3433 (+0) 25161 (-50)
Ireland 1429 (+26) 22541 (+156) 17110 (+0) 4002 (+130)
Portugal 1114 (+9) 27268 (+553) 2422 (+164) 23732 (+380)
Indonesia 943 (+13) 13112 (+336) 2494 (+113) 9675 (+210)
Romania 923 (+35) 14811 (+312) 6423 (+279) 7465 (-2)
Poland 776 (+21) 15366 (+319) 5184 (+322) 9406 (-24)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 271300 (+5582) 3926749 (+97286) 1299344 (+37294)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 262511 ( +2435) 3752603 ( +38167) 1294419 ( +30480)
Sun 10 May 2020 264735 ( +2224) 3788006 ( +35404) 1323378 ( +28959)
Mon 11 May 2020 266762 ( +2027) 3820795 ( +32788) 1350801 ( +27423)
Tue 12 May 2020 268607 ( +1845) 3851115 ( +30321) 1376688 ( +25887)
Wed 13 May 2020 270284 ( +1677) 3879116 ( +28000) 1401053 ( +24365)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82886 (+1) 77993 (+36)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82963 ( +6) 77070 ( +1)
Sun 10 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82969 ( +5) 77071 ( +1)
Mon 11 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82974 ( +5) 77072 ( +1)
Tue 12 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82978 ( +4) 77072 ( +1)
Wed 13 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82982 ( +4) 77073 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 26299 (+229) 260117 (+3262) 168408 (+4489)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 26146 ( +109) 256676 ( +1607) 163582 ( +879)
Sun 10 May 2020 26244 ( +98) 258195 ( +1519) 164237 ( +655)
Mon 11 May 2020 26331 ( +87) 259632 ( +1436) 164723 ( +486)
Tue 12 May 2020 26408 ( +77) 260989 ( +1358) 165083 ( +360)
Wed 13 May 2020 26477 ( +69) 262272 ( +1283) 165349 ( +266)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 30201 (+243) 217185 (+1327) 99023 (+2747)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 30023 ( +142) 216628 ( +803) 96936 ( +2075)
Sun 10 May 2020 30151 ( +128) 217358 ( +730) 98934 ( +1998)
Mon 11 May 2020 30268 ( +116) 218020 ( +662) 100854 ( +1919)
Tue 12 May 2020 30372 ( +105) 218620 ( +600) 102693 ( +1839)
Wed 13 May 2020 30467 ( +95) 219163 ( +543) 104452 ( +1759)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 31241 (+626) 211364 (+4649) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 30631 ( +98) 202177 ( +2018) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 30698 ( +68) 204019 ( +1842) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 30745 ( +47) 205697 ( +1678) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 30778 ( +33) 207224 ( +1527) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 30801 ( +23) 208611 ( +1387) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 78577 (+1669) 1320854 (+28710) 223162 (+6299)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 75228 ( +697) 1325066 ( +18722) 231345 ( +8161)
Sun 10 May 2020 75847 ( +619) 1342285 ( +17219) 239247 ( +7901)
Mon 11 May 2020 76396 ( +548) 1358053 ( +15768) 246863 ( +7617)
Tue 12 May 2020 76881 ( +485) 1372434 ( +14381) 254174 ( +7311)
Wed 13 May 2020 77309 ( +428) 1385501 ( +13067) 261164 ( +6990)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 26230 (+243) 176079 (+1288) 55782 (+755)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 26017 ( +106) 169013 ( +86) 55340 ( +549)
Sun 10 May 2020 26111 ( +94) 169086 ( +73) 55857 ( +518)
Mon 11 May 2020 26193 ( +82) 169147 ( +61) 56345 ( +488)
Tue 12 May 2020 26265 ( +72) 169199 ( +52) 56804 ( +459)
Wed 13 May 2020 26329 ( +64) 169242 ( +44) 57236 ( +432)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 7510 (+118) 170588 (+1158) 141700 (+1800)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 7470 ( +74) 169345 ( +432) 141319 ( +1457)
Sun 10 May 2020 7539 ( +69) 169730 ( +385) 142681 ( +1362)
Mon 11 May 2020 7603 ( +64) 170072 ( +343) 143954 ( +1272)
Tue 12 May 2020 7662 ( +59) 170377 ( +304) 145141 ( +1187)
Wed 13 May 2020 7717 ( +55) 170647 ( +270) 146248 ( +1107)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 5359 (+71) 42093 (+319) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 5314 ( +33) 41770 ( +145) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 5343 ( +29) 41899 ( +128) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 5369 ( +26) 42012 ( +114) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 5393 ( +23) 42113 ( +100) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 5413 ( +20) 42201 ( +89) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 8521 (+106) 52011 (+591) 13201 (+221)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 8513 ( +79) 51071 ( +182) 13122 ( +107)
Sun 10 May 2020 8585 ( +72) 51233 ( +162) 13217 ( +95)
Mon 11 May 2020 8651 ( +66) 51377 ( +144) 13302 ( +85)
Tue 12 May 2020 8711 ( +60) 51505 ( +128) 13377 ( +75)
Wed 13 May 2020 8765 ( +54) 51618 ( +114) 13444 ( +67)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 3175 (+135) 25265 (+642) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 3118 ( +51) 25435 ( +468) 6337 ( +952)
Sun 10 May 2020 3166 ( +49) 25891 ( +456) 7458 ( +1121)
Mon 11 May 2020 3212 ( +46) 26335 ( +444) 8777 ( +1319)
Tue 12 May 2020 3255 ( +43) 26767 ( +432) 10329 ( +1552)
Wed 13 May 2020 3296 ( +41) 27188 ( +420) 12156 ( +1827)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 776 (+21) 15366 (+319) 5184 (+322)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 784 ( +14) 15307 ( +225) 5399 ( +221)
Sun 10 May 2020 797 ( +13) 15524 ( +216) 5562 ( +162)
Mon 11 May 2020 810 ( +13) 15731 ( +207) 5695 ( +133)
Tue 12 May 2020 822 ( +12) 15930 ( +199) 5811 ( +116)
Wed 13 May 2020 833 ( +11) 16120 ( +190) 5913 ( +103)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 1823 (+13) 30207 (+81) 26100 (+200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 1826 ( +6) 29896 ( +21) 25873 ( +136)
Sun 10 May 2020 1831 ( +5) 29914 ( +19) 25991 ( +118)
Mon 11 May 2020 1836 ( +5) 29931 ( +16) 26094 ( +103)
Tue 12 May 2020 1840 ( +4) 29945 ( +14) 26184 ( +90)
Wed 13 May 2020 1843 ( +3) 29957 ( +12) 26262 ( +78)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 9992 (+846) 145892 (+10786) 55350 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 10226 ( +524) 152499 ( +9071) 52281 ( +836)
Sun 10 May 2020 10745 ( +519) 161809 ( +9310) 53010 ( +729)
Mon 11 May 2020 11255 ( +510) 171312 ( +9503) 53644 ( +634)
Tue 12 May 2020 11752 ( +497) 180956 ( +9644) 54192 ( +548)
Wed 13 May 2020 12233 ( +481) 190686 ( +9730) 54665 ( +473)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 08 May 2020 6541 (+55) 104691 (+1556) 83837 (+1093)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 6469 ( +33) 102092 ( +328) 81830 ( +442)
Sun 10 May 2020 6499 ( +30) 102386 ( +293) 82228 ( +398)
Mon 11 May 2020 6527 ( +28) 102652 ( +266) 82586 ( +358)
Tue 12 May 2020 6552 ( +25) 102895 ( +243) 82908 ( +322)
Wed 13 May 2020 6575 ( +23) 103117 ( +222) 83198 ( +290)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.